Line Movement, Steam and Head Fakes?
donny2
Senior Member
I look at line movement quite a bit. Also look at lines where some i think is strange etc. Of course most lines seem to be around right. But I'm sure many of you know what I mean when i say certain line looks very strange.
Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.
From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.
Well i was looking at a hockey game earlier between minnesota at colorado. Line was around -119 colorado at home. I saw their starting goaltender was not playing so i thought it was a bit strange so i liked colorado. Because this line would essentially mean a pickem on neutral ice or minnesota the favorite about the same as colorado would be. I did not bet it yet until i notice there was lot of steam about 20 minutes before the start of it. It was at -119 and then steamed immediately to -133. I then bet it when the line dropped a bit but still it was higher than what i wanted but i thought it was the right side. Then a few minutes later, the line dropped to -123 all the way down to -113 before the game started. It was steaming the other way now for Minnesota. I had noticed certain games have line movement like this and this rarely works out for the side that got steamed and then went completely the other way.
From what i read on the forums, this is called a head fake and it was on Colorado right? Thus i read that sharps would bet a huge amount of money on one side, in anticipation that the oddsmakers would move the line a lot ... and they would go even larger on the other side that they wanted. Thus bet a good amount on a side for x amount... then hammer 2x the amount on the other side to get a better line. Is that what most likely happened here and in many similar situations? Colorado was up 1-0 and then it went 1-1 and then got the lead again at 2-1 and then 2-2. Then they got blown out 5-2. I did not feel good about the colorado bet once i saw the line movement completely went the other way after the initial steam like 15 minutes before it started. However from that line movement, the highest odds Minnesota got was +115 so if that person or group bet big at -119, well they got only +115 here while they laid -119. However, if they are doubling their bet with Minnesota, then they do profit here with getting +115 and +112 right? But the line kept dropping and it went all the way to +102 only at closing line.
Comments
But i assume this happens a lot more in basketball and other sports right? For example i dont follow cbb at all besides knowing who are the top teams by looking at scores etc. But what i notice was lot of cbb totals... say it open at 130. It would get bet to like 136 or so. Then later on in the day, it would get bet down right to where the opening line which is 130 or so. So does this mean if you see a line like this, a sharp is betting a lot of money on one side... with plans to hammer the other side for an even bigger amount to get a bigger line? The thing is what i notice is lot of games would have totals that might open at 142. Then it goes all the way to 149. Then it close to around 142.5 etc. Because if someone could do this, aren't they basically manipulating the lines? And by doing, this, they are basically setting themselves up middles? Like if you could bet a total over 142 and then come back even more or at least even on the under 149... well you got like a 7 point middle. And i seen lot of games land between these numbers in cbb totals. Also seen lot of sides in cbb happen as well where a team would be -8 and be bet to 11.5... then have it come back down to 8.5 and game lands on 10 points for a middle.
Thoughts on this?
I would not think too much about it donny. There are some games where money has differing opinions and the game will get ping-ponged. There was a lot of this with the GT-Minnesota bowl game I noticed. It was getting hammered back and forth.
There are times when a game may be bet to take the other side. This does happen but probably not as often as people give it credit for and I don't think people are going to look much for narrow middles.
Some things are just better left a mystery.
Well these cbb totals are opening like 145 and get bet up to 152 and down it goes back to around 145. Because if one could lay -110 and get like 144.5 over and 151.5 under and lay -110, doesn't that seem good? I thought for cbb totals, someone might be manipulating it for middles?
But its not just hitting it at 144.5 and, voila, its at 151.5. Theyll need to keep hitting it to run it up, and do the same to bring it back.
For starters college basketball totals are fairly weak. So they tend to get blasted. Once the line moves a lot you are going to get people come in. So you can have big moves both ways as one side hits the total hard and moves it to the point that someone else wants to take the other side.
Do you do this full time or recreationally? However, how would you know a big line move isn't a head fake though where the line immediately goes back the other way? Also you talk about getting lot of middles. Well when the line goes the opposite.. .what do you do then?
Team A wins by 1 I would push the team A bet and win 2 bets on Team B +2 if Team A wins by 2 I would tie the +2 bet and win 1 bet on Team A -1. These extra edges happen a lot. These types of extra values happen all the time, if you are paying attention and working hard.
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My thoughts were if you know these things, wouldn't it be hard to be profitable unless you have a good middle? Example getting -1 and then +2 for double the amount... that sound good. But issue is wouldn't it not hit those numbers that much etc and thus you can't overcome the juice? Now if you could get -1 and then say +3.5 and come back double on it... i could see that being profitable.
But are you basically doing everything yourself now?
This thread is wayyy over my head but please tell me where you can find this and get paid?
Oh donny2, you were on record as saying you reside in Costa Rica. Did you move?
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Yes I'm doing it all myself
I did for sure but it got harder to deal with. Finding books and not getting booted.
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Exactly. I started running into that and it became more of a headache.
I never said I was located in Costa Rica. I'm located in Mexico.
"I relocated outside the US. Thus imagine costa rica, mexico, thailand and those type of countries. "
Multiple choice.
I'm curious but what amounts are you betting? Also so you are basically betting vegas books only or vegas books and us online books?
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Well when i wrote those countries, i meant like its one of these countries but i did not mention which one it was. Thus imagine an American relocating outside the US to one of these countries etc.
Regarding the profitability of the strategy, it depends on the specific bets placed and the subsequent line movements. If a bettor or group of bettors took Colorado at -119 and then, as you suggested, hedged by betting on Minnesota as the line moved in their favor, they could potentially secure a profitable position by exploiting the line movement. Also, if you are thinking of https://advanced.name/ buy proxies, you should be well prepared. However, the actual profitability would depend on the amounts wagered, the odds obtained, and the final outcome of the game.