NFL Offseason numbers and ratings

Using this thread to post power ratings, win totals, or other opinions coming into the season.

Mike Clay came out with his 2024 roster ratings. In the past these preseason ratings correlated well to both end of season power ratings and Yards per play stats. Using his ratings, spreads vs a neutral team listed below. Also have totals if interest.

|Team|Avg line|

|New York Jets|-5.48|
|San Francisco 49ers|-5.45|
|Kansas City Chiefs|-5.11|
|Cincinnati Bengals|-4.64|
|Baltimore Ravens|-4.12|
|Detroit Lions|-4.12|
|Cleveland Browns|-2.86|
|Miami Dolphins|-2.67|
|Houston Texans|-2.44|
|Dallas Cowboys|-2.42|
|Philadelphia Eagles|-2.38|
|Green Bay Packers|-1.69|
|Jacksonville Jaguars|-1.45|
|Buffalo Bills|-0.74|
|Chicago Bears|-0.72|
|Seattle Seahawks|-0.72|
|New Orleans Saints|-0.64|
|Pittsburgh Steelers|-0.51|
|Los Angeles Rams|-0.46|
|Indianapolis Colts|0.40|
|Atlanta Falcons|0.67|
|Carolina Panthers|1.08|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers|1.08|
|Minnesota Vikings|1.60|
|Los Angeles Chargers|1.64|
|Las Vegas Raiders|2.73|
|New England Patriots|2.73|
|Tennessee Titans|3.01|
|washington commanders|3.40|
|Denver Broncos|4.70|
|Arizona Cardinals|4.79|
|New York Giants|6.50|

Based on the Mike Clay ratings. Here’s strength of opponents (before schedule comes out) Easiest schedule Panthers, toughest Bills.

|Carolina Panthers|1|
|Atlanta Falcons|2|
|New Orleans Saints|3|
|Los Angeles Chargers|4|
|New York Jets|5|
|Philadelphia Eagles|6|
|Cincinnati Bengals|7|
|Washington Commanders|8|
|Kansas City Chiefs|9|
|Seattle Seahawks|10|
|Indianapolis Colts|11|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers|12|
|Chicago Bears|13|
|Detroit Lions|14|
|Dallas Cowboys|15|
|Baltimore Ravens|16|
|San Francisco 49ers|17|
|Miami Dolphins|18|
|New York Giants|19|
|Jacksonville Jaguars|20|
|Las Vegas Raiders|21|
|Minnesota Vikings|22|
|Los Angeles Rams|23|
|Cleveland Browns|24|
|Green Bay Packers|25|
|Denver Broncos|26|
|Tennessee Titans|27|
|Arizona Cardinals|28|
|Pittsburgh Steelers|29|
|Houston Texans|30|
|New England Patriots|31|
|Buffalo Bills|32|

Here’s a version of market ratings at the end of last year. Basically the market of where teams ended up. A negative number means higher.

|San Francisco 49ers|-8.12|
|Dallas Cowboys|-5.88|
|Buffalo Bills|-5.85|
|Kansas City Chiefs|-5.59|
|Miami Dolphins|-4.91|
|Philadelphia Eagles|-4.47|
|Baltimore Ravens|-3.53|
|Detroit Lions|-3.26|
|New Orleans Saints|-1.97|
|Jacksonville Jaguars|-1.62|
|Cincinnati Bengals|-0.68|
|Atlanta Falcons|-0.62|
|Los Angeles Chargers|-0.44|
|Cleveland Browns|-0.35|
|Pittsburgh Steelers|0.09|
|Los Angeles Rams|0.24|
|Houston Texans|0.74|
|Seattle Seahawks|0.74|
|Minnesota Vikings|0.82|
|Green Bay Packers|0.88|
|Denver Broncos|1.03|
|Indianapolis Colts|1.15|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers|2.06|
|Las Vegas Raiders|2.85|
|Tennessee Titans|2.88|
|Chicago Bears|3.21|
|New England Patriots|3.47|
|New York Jets|3.79|
|Washington commanders|4.12|
|Carolina Panthers|5.03|
|New York Giants|6.74|
|Arizona Cardinals|7.47|

Thought this was interesting. Aaron Schatz made an adjusted games lost to injury metric. It correlates pretty strongly to end of season market ratings. Pretty obvious but basically injured teams get rated worse. Decent chance these numbers regress. Lower number is better injury luck.

2023 adjusted games lost
|Los Angeles Rams|26.4|
|Las Vegas Raiders|26.8|
|Cincinnati Bengals|28.9|
|San Francisco 49ers|34.5|
|Atlanta Falcons|36.3|
|Kansas City Chiefs|38.1|
|New Orleans Saints|45.6|
|Jacksonville Jaguars|49.8|
|Chicago Bears|50.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers|51.5|
|Dallas Cowboys|51.8|
|Washington commanders|54.4|
|Buffalo Bills|57.1|
|Denver Broncos|57.7|
|Minnesota Vikings|60.4|
|Pittsburgh Steelers|61.3|
|Seattle Seahawks|66.6|
|Detroit Lions|66.7|
|Baltimore Ravens|71.3|
|Tennessee Titans|75.7|
|Miami Dolphins|76|
|Los Angeles Chargers|76.3|
|Philadelphia Eagles|77.1|
|Green Bay Packers|81.1|
|New York Giants|84.4|
|Indianapolis Colts|84.6|
|New York Jets|98.8|
|Arizona Cardinals|100.1|
|Cleveland Browns|108|
|Carolina Panthers|120.6|
|New England Patriots|128|
|Houston Texans|159.1|

As per the other thread Ben Baldwins market ratings. I switch them to price vs avg team. (Better team is negative)