NBA draft thread

Very likely the top 10 per Givony.

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
The NBA sent teams a composite ranking of the Top 10 2024 draft prospects, as determined by a blend of publicly available rankings, a panel of experts and a retained-scouting service. This determines which teams will receive medical results based on which tiers players fall in.
Alex Sarr was voted No. 1

givony

Not surprised to see Sarr #1. Pretty much only prospect without a big caveat. His rim protection and sheer amount of ground he can cover will be his main draw. He has a pretty smooth shot and can be useful on offense, stepping out and has pretty decent ball handing. Unless a team is really happy with their center (Spurs) he should be #1 pick.

Two guys of the 2-6 that could fall.

Matas Buzelis
Has some potential as a big with a good handle, athleticism around the basket and scoring versatility. The big negative with him is the 3 point shooting and ability to put the ball in the hole from range.
Catch and shoot 29th percentile, spot up 29th percentile, off the bounce 30% percentile.

Stephon Castle
His defense and driving ability are getting him into the top 5 range. However he’s even worse than Buzelis shooting.
28th percentile spot up, 26th percentile off the bounce. 20/75 27% from 3 in his college year. In the modern NBA teams simply can’t have an offensive albatross.

I think both fall due to their brutal shooting.

Brief thoughts on the other top guys

Donovan Clingan - Surprised he’s not dropping in mocks in lieu of higher upside prospects. His value add is pretty obvious, has been a great rim protector with the ability to move. Imo he doesn’t really have a successful high upside NBA comp. Thus far have seen Walker Kessler who was taken much later. Jakob Poeltl went 9th and is a functional pro. Maybe that’s all teams are looking for in this bad draft is functional. I still look for him to fall out of the top 5.

Zaccharie Risacher - Think ultimately Risacher ends up going 2nd. His athleticism and 3 and D will make him safe enough for #2. He still has pretty good upside as he was 18 playing with pros, and could develop his on ball playmaking. Assume he’ll end up pretty decent fav to go 2nd.

Nikola Topic - Topic is a tough one. He’s probably the only true PG in the top half of the draft. He has good size, and works more as an intelligent floor general than a scorer. Think the Goran Dragic comps are probably right. Concern with him is injuries. Was hurt through the season, came back then had a non contact injury that looked bad. Turned out ok but still a concern. Ultimately think he ends up in the top 4.

Rob Dillingham - He could go anywhere in the top 10. Watching him play, he’s a walking bucket and looks like an elite 6th man type. He can run an offense and create his own shot. I love the early Brandon Jennings comps, before his career was derailed with injuries. Although Dillingham probably will be more efficient. The huge caveat is Dillingham is tiny. At the combine he measured at 6 1" 164 pounds. He looked tiny on the court, but isn’t far off from Trae Young size. Spurs might be the best fit for Dillingham as Wemby’s goalkeeping could hide the lack of defense.

Ron Holland II - I’m a buyer on Holland. At one point he was the presumptive #1 pick, but has fallen since then. I liken him to GG Jackson in the 2023 draft. Expected to be a high end prospect, but put in a terrible situation. Both players were super young and due to the lack of talent were forced to be creators, which is neither of the their games. GG flourished with other NBA talent and Holland should do the same. Holland’s game is very much build on hustle, defense, and solid athleticism. He should end up a + player in the league based on guarding 1-3 and scoring via cutting/hustle/etc. His 3 point shot struggled, but doesn’t look like a broken shot. He should be a functional 36% when the entire defense isn’t focused on his creation. Unsure where he goes in the draft, but personally would take him top 5.

Dalton Knecht - He should settle in the later half of the top 10. He’s looked good thus far at the combine, and seems to have one of the highest floors. The concern for most, including myself is his age and level of competition. He’s never been at a disadvantage competition wise. His freshman and sophomore years were at a Jr College, then he went to Northern Colorado his Jr and Sr years. He was good, but clearly ahead of the competition. He did a have a few shaky games vs bigger schools. His extra Sr year he was basically a few years older than all the SEC guys, he should have been better. Possible he’s a finished product. He’ll probably still go top 10, but assume the age will relegate him to 8-10.

Reed Sheppard - He’s basically on of the greatest college shooters ever. 52% from 3, 68% EFG. Assuming he can up the volume a bit in the NBA and get his shot off, his shot should translate easily. He also has surprising athleticism. Had a 42" vertical at the combine and was 11th in steal rate in college, which is usually a good marker. His size isn’t great, but it’s functional. The first time I watched him in the Mcdonald’s All American game, I thought his IQ was through the roof. As many of the other prospects have bad warts, Sheppard has an elite skill. Ultimately I think he goes top 4 in the draft.

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I’ve been surprised at the assumption Clingan is a Top 5 guy (or lock) as well. Not really sure what the thought is on him expanding his game, think he kind of is what he is. He can pass it some and Hurley thinks he has a jumper he hasn’t shown, but hard to buy into that.

Haven’t started looking at mocks in depth yet. Is the Cooper Flagg eligible? Expected to play on Olympic team is impressive.
More importantly to me. Is there anyone that teams will attempt to tank for 2025 draft already?
Tia

Flagg is next year. I’d be pretty shocked if any players in 2024 had an immediate contribution. Apparently 2025 draft is worthy of tanking. Toronto tank perhaps, that’s a weird squad.